王雷（Rani Jarkas）：人民币不存在持续贬值的基础

在近半年的沉默之后，中国央行行长周小川在2月连续进行了两次公开讲话，再次重申人民币在未来没有大幅贬值的必要。他谴责“投机者”把人民币当作攻击目标，并补充称“我们不会让投机力量主导市场情绪”。

中国央行副行长易纲在全国政协十二届四次会议上周日举行的记者会上也同样强调，人民币汇率将保持基本稳定。不存在持续贬值的基础。

与此同时，李克强总理很可能会在正在进行的全国人大会议上详述中国政府将促进人民币对其他一篮子货币保持稳定。中国很可能不会宣布对人民币政策的具体改动以避免引起更多的波动。

对人民币汇率稳定的信心主要基于中国发展情况的几点现状：第一，中国经济保持中高速增长的态势没有改变，劳动生产率和全要素生产率还在稳步提高；第二，中国的经常项目特别是货物贸易还存在非常大的顺差，对外直接投资和外来直接投资都在稳步增长；第三，外汇储备依然保持在合理的水平。

另外，对汇率改革的适当减少也可能帮助缓解人民币的贬值压力，因为降低了市场的不确定性。中国现在正在学习如何管理市场预期，并很可能尝试并引导投资者对一篮子货币兑人民币汇率的关注，而不仅是美元。这将在人民币对美元汇率走低时帮助缓和市场情绪。

赛德思投资董事长王雷（Rani Jarkas）先生在亚洲拥有多年的金融从业经验，他表示：“我相信从中长期看，人民币汇率预期会回归基本稳定。人民币仍将是在未来能超越美元的少数货币之一。”

Rani Jarkas: No Basis for Sustained Yuan Depreciation

After six months of silence, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan has spoken publicly twice in February, reiterating his view that major depreciation of the yuan is unnecessary for the foreseeable future. He condemned “speculators” for targeting the RMB, adding that “China will not let market sentiment be dominated by these speculative forces”.

During the CPPCC press conference on Sunday, People’s Bank of China Deputy Governor Yi Gang also stressed that “The currency will remain stable. There is no basis for its continuing devaluation.”

Meanwhile, Premier Li Keqiang will probably use his platform at the on-going National People’s Congress to drive home to the point that the government will promote stability against a newly-unveiled basket of major currencies. China will probably refrain from announcing any detailed changes to the country’s yuan policy this year to avoid spurring further volatility.

The confidence in Yuan’s stability comes from several facts in China’s development. First, Chinese economy has maintained rapid growth trend. The workforce productivity and total factor productivity have been increasing steadily. Second, large trade surpluses still exist in the current account, especially for trades in goods. It is reported that China’s outward direct investment and FDI remain in steady growth. Third, China’s reserves remain at an appropriate and reasonable level.

Besides, a reduced likelihood of foreign-exchange reforms will help ease depreciation pressure on the yuan because uncertainties will be fewer. China is now learning to manage market expectations and will likely try and direct investor attention to the currency’s exchange rate against the currency basket, and not just dollar, which will help soothe sentiment when the yuan weakens against the greenback.

Rani Jarkas, Chairman of Cedrus Investments, who is an investment pioneer with years of financial experience in Asia, said, “I believe that RMB exchange rate will remain stable for the mid-long term. RMB will remain one of the few currencies that can outperform the US dollar in a foreseeable future.”

王雷（Rani Jarkas）：俄罗斯或将成为中国最大的石油进口来源国

中俄关系的暖化使得中国从俄罗斯的进口石油量得到了极大的提升。在能源领域，两国几乎是最完美的组合：全球最大的净能源出口国和拥有超长陆地国界的第二大净能源进口国。

中国海关数据显示中国2015年从俄罗斯进口原油上涨了28.17%，达到4243.3万吨。俄新社报道称中国是2015年俄罗斯最大的原油进口国。

其实早在2014年5月就已经有了上升的迹象。当时俄罗斯总统普金和习近平主席签署了一项已拖延许久的协议，俄罗斯将供应数千亿元美元的天然气给中国。从此之后，中国银行开始贷款给由于受到美国制裁而困顿的俄罗斯企业，俄罗斯也表示可能愿意接受中国入股其最大的新油田。

中国从俄罗斯的原油进口仍将继续提升。能源咨询公司Wood Mackenzie总监古普塔（Sushant Gupta）预计，到2020年俄罗斯对中国的石油出口将会超过每年5千万吨，而在2014年仅为3千万吨。

两国的兴趣有着明显的趋同性。俄罗斯需要使石油和天然气销售市场多元化，而中国也有许多原因需要增加从俄罗斯的能源进口。中国国内石油声场已经达到峰值，然而需求却持续增长。通过管道从俄罗斯进口石油和天然气能增强中国的能源安全，减少从脆弱交通路线进入的石油和天然气，使得中国在与例如澳大利亚这样的其他天然气供应国和波斯湾石油出口国的谈判中，能够有筹码得到更有利的条件。

赛德思投资董事长王雷（Rani Jarkas）先生拥有数十年全球石油和天然气投资经验，他表示：“中国在能源方面越来越靠拢俄罗斯已经在这几年成为了一种趋势。俄罗斯和独联体国家在未来将对中国的能源需求战略中扮演着更重要的角色，这对中国也十分有利。”

Rani Jarkas: China is diversifying its oil supply provenances towards Russia

Warming ties between China and Russia are giving a big boost to Chinese imports of Russian oil. In the energy sphere, the two countries are an almost perfect match: the world's largest net energy exporter and its second largest net energy importer with a long land border.

Chinese customs data released recently show that China’s crude imports from Russia surged 28.17% in 2015, reaching 424.33 million tons. RIA Novosti reported that China becomes the largest crude importer for Russia in 2015.

An early sign of the increase came in May 2014, when Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping sealed a long-hobbled deal for Russia to supply China hundreds of billions of dollars in natural gas. Since then, Chinese banks have come through with loans for Russian companies ailing under U.S.-imposed sanctions and Russia has even signaled it might be willing to accept a Chinese stake in one of Russia’s biggest new oil fields.

And the rise in Chinese imports of Russian crude will continue. The flow of Russian crude to China will surpass 50 million tons annually by 2020, from more than 30 million tons in 2014, forecasts Wood Mackenzie’s Director Sushant Gupta.

There is a clear convergence of interests. Russia needs to diversify the markets for its oil and gas, while China has various reasons to increase energy imports from Russia. China’s domestic oil production has plateaued even as demand continues to rise. Bringing oil and gas via pipelines from Russia would strengthen China's energy security. It would cut the amount of oil and gas that must arrive along vulnerable transit routes. It would also give China more leverage to strike favorable deals in negotiations with other gas suppliers such as Australia and oil exporters in the Persian Gulf.

Rani Jarkas, Chairman of Cedrus Investments, who has decades of experience in global oil and gas investments, said, “China’s diversification toward Russia has been a trend for several years. Russia and CIS countries will play a much more crucial role in China’s energy demand strategy in the future, which will be beneficial to China.”

王雷（Rani Jarkas）：中美清洁技术产业合作中存在的机遇

2009年11月，美国总统奥巴马和前中国国家主席胡锦涛正式签署了再生能源上的合作，包括建设专注电动汽车、清洁煤和水能项目的清洁能源研究中心。5年后，奥巴马和习近平主席宣布两国将在气候变化上进行合作，中国宣布将努力在2030年前控制住温室气体排放。

根据德国法兰克福学院气候和可持续能源金融中心，中国2014年全年在再生能源上投资了830亿美元。 十三五计划期间总环保支出将达1万亿美元，比十二五计划期间增长了60%。但是中国政府预计将只负担15%的投入。

这个情况却为私营经济支持中国环保目标的雄心带来了无可估计的大量机遇。高盛最近的一份报告显示，中国的环境清洁将给国内外私营企业带来价值几十亿美元的机遇。事实上，从私营企业获得融资——无论是直接地或是从公司合作融资模式——将把新技术带到中国，刺激创新解决方案和在新兴的环境改革领域创造就业。

去年9月中国国家主席习近平3天的美国访问之行中，清洁技术成为全球最大的两大经济体和温室气体排放最多的两个国家最关注的首要问题。

“增强合作互助是必须的，”华盛顿州清洁技术产业经济发展主管布莱恩·杨说道。“另外，这是一个巨大的商业机会。双方都表示这将能创造就业。”

赛德思投资董事长王雷（Rani Jarkas）先生是清洁技术产业专家和金融行业知名人物，他表示：“中美清洁技术领域的合作为私营经济展现了新机遇，这有可能成为全球经济新的闪光点。”

Rani Jarkas: Opportunities in Sino-US clean technology collaboration

In November 2009, US President Obama and then-President Hu Jintao formalized a renewable energy partnership, including the establishment of clean-energy research centers focused on electric vehicles, cleaner coal and water energy programs. Five years later, Obama and Xi Jinping announced that the two countries would work together on climate change, with China announcing it would try to cap its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, or sooner if possible.

According to the Frankfurt School's Center for Climate and Sustainable Energy Finance in Germany, China invested a record $83 billion in renewable energy in 2014. And the total environmental expenditures are expected to exceed $1 trillion during the execution period of the 13th Five Year Plan. This amounts to a 60% increase over the last Five-Year Plan. But, the Chinese government estimates that it will only fund about 15 percent of this initiative.

The situation presents myriad opportunities for the private sector to support China's ambitious environmental goals. A recent report by Goldman Sachs states that cleaning up China's environment will be multibillion-dollar opportunity for the domestic and international private sector. In fact, financing from the private sector -- either directly or in public private partnerships -- will bring new technologies to China, spur innovative solutions and create jobs in environmental reform, a growing field.

During Chinese President Xi Jinping’s 3-day U.S. visit in last September, clean technology has been a priority for the worlds’ largest economies and the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases.

"Improving cooperation and collaboration is really a necessity," said Brian Young, Washington State’s director of economic development for the clean technology sector. "Second, it's a huge business opportunity. Both sides recognize the opportunity for job creation."

Rani Jarkas, Chairman of Cedrus Investments, a trusted resource and clean-tech industry expert and a well-regarded figure in financing industry, said “Collaboration between China and US in clean technology field is presenting new opportunities for the private sector, which could be a bright spot for the global economy.”

王雷（Rani Jarkas）：印尼期望吸引更多的中国直接投资

2015年3月，印尼总统佐科·维多多受邀对中国进行国事访问，并出席博鳌亚洲论坛（BFA）2015年年会。来访期间，双方发表了两国加强全面战略合作伙伴关系的联合声明。

印尼外交部发言人纳西尔（Arrmanatha Nasir）评论两国之间的交流“将强调印尼是中国重要的合作伙伴，印尼已经准备好打开市场，实现经济上的合作。”

就在去年4月，印尼投资协调委员会（BKPM）宣布中国在第一季度首次入围印尼十大外资来源国。随后在今年初的采访中，印尼投资协调委员会副主席Azhar Lubis 则表示，中国很可能是印尼最大的外资来源国，因为中国投资者通常通过设在其他国家的，例如新加坡和香港，代理公司或分公司来进行投资，使得投资金额无法准确监控。

根据《金融时报》的报道，雅加达预计其至2019年的五年基础设施建设计划需要4,500亿美元的投资，其中包括6个新的精炼厂、35,000兆瓦发电量和15个机场。随着印尼改善基础建设战略持续产生新的需求和项目，中国的企业可以借此机会在另一个市场全面测试它们的技术和管理能力。

赛德思投资董事长王雷（Rani Jarkas）先生在亚洲拥有多年投资经验，他表示：“尽管印尼过去几年经济增长缓慢，但它仍是中国投资者在东南亚最值得投资的地点之一。我预计，随着中印两国双边关系日益紧密，未来会有更多来自中国的直接投资。”