王雷（Rani Jarkas）：人民币不存在持续贬值的基础

在近半年的沉默之后，中国央行行长周小川在2月连续进行了两次公开讲话，再次重申人民币在未来没有大幅贬值的必要。他谴责“投机者”把人民币当作攻击目标，并补充称“我们不会让投机力量主导市场情绪”。

中国央行副行长易纲在全国政协十二届四次会议上周日举行的记者会上也同样强调，人民币汇率将保持基本稳定。不存在持续贬值的基础。

与此同时，李克强总理很可能会在正在进行的全国人大会议上详述中国政府将促进人民币对其他一篮子货币保持稳定。中国很可能不会宣布对人民币政策的具体改动以避免引起更多的波动。

对人民币汇率稳定的信心主要基于中国发展情况的几点现状：第一，中国经济保持中高速增长的态势没有改变，劳动生产率和全要素生产率还在稳步提高；第二，中国的经常项目特别是货物贸易还存在非常大的顺差，对外直接投资和外来直接投资都在稳步增长；第三，外汇储备依然保持在合理的水平。

另外，对汇率改革的适当减少也可能帮助缓解人民币的贬值压力，因为降低了市场的不确定性。中国现在正在学习如何管理市场预期，并很可能尝试并引导投资者对一篮子货币兑人民币汇率的关注，而不仅是美元。这将在人民币对美元汇率走低时帮助缓和市场情绪。

赛德思投资董事长王雷（Rani Jarkas）先生在亚洲拥有多年的金融从业经验，他表示：“我相信从中长期看，人民币汇率预期会回归基本稳定。人民币仍将是在未来能超越美元的少数货币之一。”

Rani Jarkas: No Basis for Sustained Yuan Depreciation

After six months of silence, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan has spoken publicly twice in February, reiterating his view that major depreciation of the yuan is unnecessary for the foreseeable future. He condemned “speculators” for targeting the RMB, adding that “China will not let market sentiment be dominated by these speculative forces”.

During the CPPCC press conference on Sunday, People’s Bank of China Deputy Governor Yi Gang also stressed that “The currency will remain stable. There is no basis for its continuing devaluation.”

Meanwhile, Premier Li Keqiang will probably use his platform at the on-going National People’s Congress to drive home to the point that the government will promote stability against a newly-unveiled basket of major currencies. China will probably refrain from announcing any detailed changes to the country’s yuan policy this year to avoid spurring further volatility.

The confidence in Yuan’s stability comes from several facts in China’s development. First, Chinese economy has maintained rapid growth trend. The workforce productivity and total factor productivity have been increasing steadily. Second, large trade surpluses still exist in the current account, especially for trades in goods. It is reported that China’s outward direct investment and FDI remain in steady growth. Third, China’s reserves remain at an appropriate and reasonable level.

Besides, a reduced likelihood of foreign-exchange reforms will help ease depreciation pressure on the yuan because uncertainties will be fewer. China is now learning to manage market expectations and will likely try and direct investor attention to the currency’s exchange rate against the currency basket, and not just dollar, which will help soothe sentiment when the yuan weakens against the greenback.

Rani Jarkas, Chairman of Cedrus Investments, who is an investment pioneer with years of financial experience in Asia, said, “I believe that RMB exchange rate will remain stable for the mid-long term. RMB will remain one of the few currencies that can outperform the US dollar in a foreseeable future.”

人民币将是未来少数具备超越其他全球货币能力的货币之一

自从货币基金组织决定即美元、欧元、英镑和日元之后，自2016年起将人民币纳入特别提款权（SDR）篮子，人民币的国际化迈出了坚实的一步，这将使得未来对人民币的需求大大提升，极大地增强人民币的地位。

美国国内利率正常化的大背景下美元却仍可能走强，而人民币很可能保持稳定，而非对美元贬值。渣打银行驻香港高级利率策略师刘洁表示，人民币将会是仍能跑赢美元的少数货币之一。

中国国际金融有限公司首席经济学家梁红称，人民币在今年至少会与美元一样表现强劲，并很有可能超过美元。

就一些分析机构认为人民币在2016年会持续下行，李克强总理上周五评论道中国能够维持人民币汇率基本稳定在一个合理和平衡的水平，不存在持续贬值的基础。中国副主席李源潮在刚刚举办的瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛年会上补充道：“中国政府没有意愿也没有政策来使货币贬值，因为货币市场的波动是市场力量的结果”。

王雷（Rani Jarkas）在亚洲有多年的金融经验。他表示，“人民币的下行压力将会缓解。我相信人民币仍是在未来能超越美元的少数货币之一。”

RMB will be one of the few currencies that can still outperform global currencies in the future

Since IMF decided to include the yuan in the basket of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) from 2016, joining the dollar, the euro, the pound and the yen, the internationalization process of renminbi has made a solid step forward and it will prompt China’s currency to strengthen dramatically as demand for the renminbi rises in the future.

The renminbi will likely be "stable" rather than depreciate against the greenback, while the US dollar is due to become stronger against the backdrop of rates normalization in the US. RMB might prove to be one of the few currencies that can still beat the US dollar, said Becky Liu, Senior Rates Strategist at Standard Chartered Bank (HK) Ltd.

Liang Hong, Chief Economist at China International Capital Corporation, added that "RMB will be at least as strong as the US dollar this year, if not stronger."

While some forecast that RMB will retain a depreciating bias in 2016, Premier Li Keqiang commented last Friday that China can maintain yuan exchange rate “basically stable at a reasonable and balanced standard,” adding there’s “no basis for a continued depreciation.” The Chinese government has no intention and no policy to devalue its currency, as the fluctuations in the currency market are a result of market forces, said Li Yuanchao, China’s Vice president, on the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

Rani Jarkas, Chairman of Cedrus Investments, an investment pioneer with years of financial experience in Asia, said, “Downward pressure on RMB is expected to ease. I expect RMB will remain one of the few currencies that can outperform the US dollar in the years to come.”

拉尼.亚卡斯（Rani Jarkas）看中国的环保清洁技术

我在最近的一篇博客文章（https://ranijarkas.wordpress.com/2014/06/04/%e5%af%b9%e7%8e%af%e4%bf%9d%e6%b8%85%e6%b4%81%e6%8a%80%e6%9c%af%e7%9a%84%e4%b8%80%e4%ba%9b%e8%a7%81%e8%a7%a3-%e6%8b%89%e5%b0%bc-%e4%ba%9a%e5%8d%a1%e6%96%af%ef%bc%88rani-jarkas%ef%bc%89/）里解释过环保清洁技术的定义以及其重要性。读者可能也阅读过我的另一篇关于环保清洁技术的文章（http://www.briefingwire.com/pr/rani-jarkas-Cleantech-wisdom）。我很欣慰收到了许多读者的支持和正面反馈，因此我想在此继续和大家一起分享和探讨我对环保清洁技术的一些看法。

今天的主题是中国的环保清洁技术。

中国多年大规模的增长对环境和自然资源造成了巨大的伤害也为之付出了沉重的代价。中国政府现在决心要对清洁技术行业采取积极措施，计划通过落实并管理清洁技术，来应对全国的高污染问题，同时平衡其能源需求和经济增长。

早在2010年，中国全年能源消费总量达32.5亿吨标准煤，成为仅次于美国的世界第二大能源消费国。如今，中国在清洁技术的投资已超越美国和欧洲，成为清洁技术产业发展最活跃的国家。美国国家科学基金会科学和工程指标最近的一份报告指出，中国对清洁技术的商业投资已经从2007年的300亿美元上升到2012年的近1,600亿美元。

据跨国咨询公司安永会计事务所（Ernst & Young）发布的可再生能源吸引力指数季度报告，中国2010 年二季度在风能上的投资达100亿美元，占全球投资的一半。中国三季度在清洁新技术行业的投资达135亿美元，而欧洲仅为80 亿美元。中国还在安永发布的可再生能源国家排名榜上名列首位。2010年全球共有38家纯清洁能源公司完成首次公开招股（IPO），其中中国公司就占了20家，筹集了共47亿美元，占全球总清洁技术IPO募集资金的49％。中国经济的蓬勃发展和投资者的热情都会令中国清洁技术的IPO继续刷新纪录。上市公司中大部分都是经营太阳能、风能、能源储存和节能的公司，反映出这些领域是中国清洁技术发展的主力。

据新华网报道，国务院总理温家宝于2013年1月30日主持召开了国务院常务会议，提出加快形成能源消费强度和消费总量双控制的新机制。会议同意国家发展改革委提出的预期目标：到2015年，全国能源消费总量控制在40亿吨标准煤左右，用电量控制在6.15万亿千瓦时左右。

受到国家政策的大力支持，清洁技术将成为中国的下一次工业革命。随着中国能源消费的转型加速，全球各行业的企业、政府和纯清洁技术市场的领导者正在寻求更多的竞争优势。你准备好抓住这些机遇了吗？

Rani Jarkas’ Confidence in Chinese RMB Yuan

[caption id="attachment_36" align="aligncenter" width="300"] Rani Jarkas Confidence in Chinese RMB/Yuan Investments (http://ranijarkas.wordpress.com)[/caption]
When many experts on Wall Street saw a free-floating Yuan as a distant prospect, Rani Jarkas, a world-renowned entrepreneur and a banking expert, has shown his early confidence in RMB. Seeing China’s economy has been developing rapidly and the level of its openness to the outside world keeps increasing, Rani believes RMB will become more and more used overseas and will become fully convertible in international markets in the future.

When the China Central Government stated its support for Hong Kong's development as an offshore Renminbi business centre in 2010, Rani saw the great potential and seized the opportunity immediately to establish a platform in Hong Kong. Taking a broader and more forward-looking view, he launched an offering of renminbi (RMB) – denominated investment products through a global boutique investment firm in the same year.

Through Rani’s relationships and global network of his partners, he has expanded the offering to include a wide variety of RMB-denominated products, including ‘dim sum bonds’, funds, IPOs and currency exposure in order to meet his clients’ needs.

Rani Jarkas said, “Our goal in expanding our offering to include RMB-denominated investment products is to ensure that our clients are well-diversified and positioned for the inevitable global rebalancing – the theme of the century.” He added that, “As the RMB market grows, we will continue to seek out unique investment opportunities for our clients.”