王雷（Rani Jarkas）：人民币不存在持续贬值的基础

在近半年的沉默之后，中国央行行长周小川在2月连续进行了两次公开讲话，再次重申人民币在未来没有大幅贬值的必要。他谴责“投机者”把人民币当作攻击目标，并补充称“我们不会让投机力量主导市场情绪”。

中国央行副行长易纲在全国政协十二届四次会议上周日举行的记者会上也同样强调，人民币汇率将保持基本稳定。不存在持续贬值的基础。

与此同时，李克强总理很可能会在正在进行的全国人大会议上详述中国政府将促进人民币对其他一篮子货币保持稳定。中国很可能不会宣布对人民币政策的具体改动以避免引起更多的波动。

对人民币汇率稳定的信心主要基于中国发展情况的几点现状：第一，中国经济保持中高速增长的态势没有改变，劳动生产率和全要素生产率还在稳步提高；第二，中国的经常项目特别是货物贸易还存在非常大的顺差，对外直接投资和外来直接投资都在稳步增长；第三，外汇储备依然保持在合理的水平。

另外，对汇率改革的适当减少也可能帮助缓解人民币的贬值压力，因为降低了市场的不确定性。中国现在正在学习如何管理市场预期，并很可能尝试并引导投资者对一篮子货币兑人民币汇率的关注，而不仅是美元。这将在人民币对美元汇率走低时帮助缓和市场情绪。

赛德思投资董事长王雷（Rani Jarkas）先生在亚洲拥有多年的金融从业经验，他表示：“我相信从中长期看，人民币汇率预期会回归基本稳定。人民币仍将是在未来能超越美元的少数货币之一。”

Rani Jarkas: No Basis for Sustained Yuan Depreciation

After six months of silence, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan has spoken publicly twice in February, reiterating his view that major depreciation of the yuan is unnecessary for the foreseeable future. He condemned “speculators” for targeting the RMB, adding that “China will not let market sentiment be dominated by these speculative forces”.

During the CPPCC press conference on Sunday, People’s Bank of China Deputy Governor Yi Gang also stressed that “The currency will remain stable. There is no basis for its continuing devaluation.”

Meanwhile, Premier Li Keqiang will probably use his platform at the on-going National People’s Congress to drive home to the point that the government will promote stability against a newly-unveiled basket of major currencies. China will probably refrain from announcing any detailed changes to the country’s yuan policy this year to avoid spurring further volatility.

The confidence in Yuan’s stability comes from several facts in China’s development. First, Chinese economy has maintained rapid growth trend. The workforce productivity and total factor productivity have been increasing steadily. Second, large trade surpluses still exist in the current account, especially for trades in goods. It is reported that China’s outward direct investment and FDI remain in steady growth. Third, China’s reserves remain at an appropriate and reasonable level.

Besides, a reduced likelihood of foreign-exchange reforms will help ease depreciation pressure on the yuan because uncertainties will be fewer. China is now learning to manage market expectations and will likely try and direct investor attention to the currency’s exchange rate against the currency basket, and not just dollar, which will help soothe sentiment when the yuan weakens against the greenback.

Rani Jarkas, Chairman of Cedrus Investments, who is an investment pioneer with years of financial experience in Asia, said, “I believe that RMB exchange rate will remain stable for the mid-long term. RMB will remain one of the few currencies that can outperform the US dollar in a foreseeable future.”