王雷（Rani Jarkas）：人民币不存在持续贬值的基础

在近半年的沉默之后，中国央行行长周小川在2月连续进行了两次公开讲话，再次重申人民币在未来没有大幅贬值的必要。他谴责“投机者”把人民币当作攻击目标，并补充称“我们不会让投机力量主导市场情绪”。

中国央行副行长易纲在全国政协十二届四次会议上周日举行的记者会上也同样强调，人民币汇率将保持基本稳定。不存在持续贬值的基础。

与此同时，李克强总理很可能会在正在进行的全国人大会议上详述中国政府将促进人民币对其他一篮子货币保持稳定。中国很可能不会宣布对人民币政策的具体改动以避免引起更多的波动。

对人民币汇率稳定的信心主要基于中国发展情况的几点现状：第一，中国经济保持中高速增长的态势没有改变，劳动生产率和全要素生产率还在稳步提高；第二，中国的经常项目特别是货物贸易还存在非常大的顺差，对外直接投资和外来直接投资都在稳步增长；第三，外汇储备依然保持在合理的水平。

另外，对汇率改革的适当减少也可能帮助缓解人民币的贬值压力，因为降低了市场的不确定性。中国现在正在学习如何管理市场预期，并很可能尝试并引导投资者对一篮子货币兑人民币汇率的关注，而不仅是美元。这将在人民币对美元汇率走低时帮助缓和市场情绪。

赛德思投资董事长王雷（Rani Jarkas）先生在亚洲拥有多年的金融从业经验，他表示：“我相信从中长期看，人民币汇率预期会回归基本稳定。人民币仍将是在未来能超越美元的少数货币之一。”

Rani Jarkas: No Basis for Sustained Yuan Depreciation

After six months of silence, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan has spoken publicly twice in February, reiterating his view that major depreciation of the yuan is unnecessary for the foreseeable future. He condemned “speculators” for targeting the RMB, adding that “China will not let market sentiment be dominated by these speculative forces”.

During the CPPCC press conference on Sunday, People’s Bank of China Deputy Governor Yi Gang also stressed that “The currency will remain stable. There is no basis for its continuing devaluation.”

Meanwhile, Premier Li Keqiang will probably use his platform at the on-going National People’s Congress to drive home to the point that the government will promote stability against a newly-unveiled basket of major currencies. China will probably refrain from announcing any detailed changes to the country’s yuan policy this year to avoid spurring further volatility.

The confidence in Yuan’s stability comes from several facts in China’s development. First, Chinese economy has maintained rapid growth trend. The workforce productivity and total factor productivity have been increasing steadily. Second, large trade surpluses still exist in the current account, especially for trades in goods. It is reported that China’s outward direct investment and FDI remain in steady growth. Third, China’s reserves remain at an appropriate and reasonable level.

Besides, a reduced likelihood of foreign-exchange reforms will help ease depreciation pressure on the yuan because uncertainties will be fewer. China is now learning to manage market expectations and will likely try and direct investor attention to the currency’s exchange rate against the currency basket, and not just dollar, which will help soothe sentiment when the yuan weakens against the greenback.

Rani Jarkas, Chairman of Cedrus Investments, who is an investment pioneer with years of financial experience in Asia, said, “I believe that RMB exchange rate will remain stable for the mid-long term. RMB will remain one of the few currencies that can outperform the US dollar in a foreseeable future.”

人民币将是未来少数具备超越其他全球货币能力的货币之一

自从货币基金组织决定即美元、欧元、英镑和日元之后，自2016年起将人民币纳入特别提款权（SDR）篮子，人民币的国际化迈出了坚实的一步，这将使得未来对人民币的需求大大提升，极大地增强人民币的地位。

美国国内利率正常化的大背景下美元却仍可能走强，而人民币很可能保持稳定，而非对美元贬值。渣打银行驻香港高级利率策略师刘洁表示，人民币将会是仍能跑赢美元的少数货币之一。

中国国际金融有限公司首席经济学家梁红称，人民币在今年至少会与美元一样表现强劲，并很有可能超过美元。

就一些分析机构认为人民币在2016年会持续下行，李克强总理上周五评论道中国能够维持人民币汇率基本稳定在一个合理和平衡的水平，不存在持续贬值的基础。中国副主席李源潮在刚刚举办的瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛年会上补充道：“中国政府没有意愿也没有政策来使货币贬值，因为货币市场的波动是市场力量的结果”。

王雷（Rani Jarkas）在亚洲有多年的金融经验。他表示，“人民币的下行压力将会缓解。我相信人民币仍是在未来能超越美元的少数货币之一。”

RMB will be one of the few currencies that can still outperform global currencies in the future

Since IMF decided to include the yuan in the basket of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) from 2016, joining the dollar, the euro, the pound and the yen, the internationalization process of renminbi has made a solid step forward and it will prompt China’s currency to strengthen dramatically as demand for the renminbi rises in the future.

The renminbi will likely be "stable" rather than depreciate against the greenback, while the US dollar is due to become stronger against the backdrop of rates normalization in the US. RMB might prove to be one of the few currencies that can still beat the US dollar, said Becky Liu, Senior Rates Strategist at Standard Chartered Bank (HK) Ltd.

Liang Hong, Chief Economist at China International Capital Corporation, added that "RMB will be at least as strong as the US dollar this year, if not stronger."

While some forecast that RMB will retain a depreciating bias in 2016, Premier Li Keqiang commented last Friday that China can maintain yuan exchange rate “basically stable at a reasonable and balanced standard,” adding there’s “no basis for a continued depreciation.” The Chinese government has no intention and no policy to devalue its currency, as the fluctuations in the currency market are a result of market forces, said Li Yuanchao, China’s Vice president, on the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

Rani Jarkas, Chairman of Cedrus Investments, an investment pioneer with years of financial experience in Asia, said, “Downward pressure on RMB is expected to ease. I expect RMB will remain one of the few currencies that can outperform the US dollar in the years to come.”

对于中国市场的投资需要时间、耐心和多样性

尽管市场波动剧烈，但中国的基本经济形式仍然相对乐观。作为一名关注中国权益市场多年的投资专家，我能给出的建议是投资需要时间、耐心和多样化。

因为A股加入摩根士丹利资本国际（MSCI）新兴市场指数，更多的长期资金即将涌入。然而，中国股市刚刚经历了动荡的一年，也引起了全球股市的连锁反应。

中国已经发出了一个明确信息信号，经济增长有可能会下滑。但是，在总体经济大环境的影响下依然能呈现出非常强劲和整张良好的势头。如果你再深入观察，可以发现制造业之中存在着过剩的产能。但向更强大发展更优质的服务型经济的转变，大部分来源于私人企业和业务的长期可持续发展。

赛德思投资董事长王雷（Rani Jarkas）先生在亚洲拥有多年金融经验，他表示：“关于市场估值，每当投资者看到这种大行情波动，拥有多样化的投资组合的客户，包括固定收益、股票、大宗商品和其他另类投资类别，通常能跑赢大盘。这样的时刻提醒着他们多元化投资的重要性。”

Investing require time, patience and diversification with the Chinese market

Despite market volatility, the country's underlying economy is relatively sanguine. Investing requires time, patience and diversification is the advice that a financial veteran offers to investors whose eyes are fixed on China's equity market.

Because of the A-share's inclusion into the MSCI Emerging Market index, more capital with long-term commitment will enter the market. However China's stock market has gone through a volatile year, which also had a ripple effect on the global market.

China has sent a clear message that its growth will decline, but in aggregate the economy is still very strong and with high quality of growth compared to other countries. If you look deeper, there's some overcapacity in the manufacturing sector. But what has taken place is a transition towards much stronger service economy with better quality of growth and much of that being built by private enterprises and long-term sustainable business development.

Rani Jarkas, Chairman of Cedrus Investments, an investment pioneer with years of financial experience in Asia,  added, “In terms of market valuation and whenever investors see this kind of volatility, clients with diversified portfolios that include fixed income, equities, commodities and other alternative asset classes will outperform the market. Moments like this remind clients of the importance of diversification.”

投资组合管理对中国投资者的重要性日益增加

自从30年前中国开始实施改革开放政策以来，中国投资者已经在这段不长的时间里体验了各种经验教训。最近的一次，就是今年实施熔断机制以来的第一周。中国股市充斥着大量散户，一直以来都是投机交易。大多数投资者蜂拥购买一支上涨的股票，全然不顾高股价，又或者集中抛售一支下跌的股票，使得中国股市成为了世界上波动最大的股权市场。

贝恩咨询的一份研究报告表明截止2014年底，中国的私有财产已达112万亿人民币（约合17万亿美元），中国成为仅次于美国的全球第二大私人财富管理市场，人均可投资产约为8.2万元。然而，储蓄和银行理财产品仍然是最主要的方式，占到66.5%，股票占到16.1%。

本周早些时候，中国最大的投资银行和研究服务公司之一——中国国际金融股份有限公司（CICC），敦促中国投资者将他们的投资策略从单一地押在一类资产的升值和紧盯风云变幻的股票市场，转变成采取投资组合策略，融合例如债券这样不与股票市场同步的投资，从而分散风险，降低投资的波动性。

根据汇丰银行的报告，中国境内债券作为后起之秀，按美元价值计算回报率为2.5%。汇丰全球资产管理亚太固定收益产品首席投资官陈宝枝说：“越来越多的中国大陆投资者今年正在进入美元投资的离岸债券市场。”

在我看来，中国投资者是时候开始转变采取投资组合策略了，不仅是指那些传统的投资产品，例如股票和债券，也包括其他非传统产品，例如大宗商品、货币、私募股权基金、房地产和海外资产。一个多样化的投资组合能帮助分散因某一项投资未达预期而可能产生损失的风险。

Portfolio Management Becomes Increasingly Important for Chinese Investors

Since China’s Economic Reform and Opening-up policy that started some 30 years ago, Chinese investors have learnt abundant lessons within this relatively short timeframe, most recently, the plunge in the first week after the launch of circuit breaker mechanism. China's stock market, crowded with retailer investors, has been historically filled with speculative speculation as most investors flocked to one rallying stock, regardless of its already high-valuation, and sell off a plunging stock in herds, causing one of the most volatile equity markets in the world.

A Bain’s research report showing that by the end of 2014, Chinese private wealth had hit 112 trillion yuan ($17 trillion)——the second largest private wealth management market next to the US -- with per capita investing wealth of 82,000 yuan. However, deposit and banks' wealth management products still take up the majority (66.5%), while securities take up 16.1%.

Early this week, China International Capital Corp (CICC), one if China’s largest investment banking and research services companies, urged Chinese investors to shift their investment strategy away from betting on appreciation of a single asset class and relentlessly go after a surging stock, to take a portfolio strategy, blending, for example, bonds, an asset class that does not in sync with stocks, with stocks that could diversify risks and reduce the volatility of the investment.

According to HSBC, Chinese onshore bonds was a rising star, with a 2.5-percent total return in US-dollar terms. “More Chinese mainland investors are entering the offshore bonds market with US dollars this year”, said Cecilia Chan, Asia Pacific fixed-income chief investment officer at HSBC Global Asset Management (HK).

In my opinion, it is time for Chinese investors to shift to portfolio investment, not only the traditional investment products like stocks and bonds, but also unconventional products such as commodities, currencies, private equity funds, real estate, and overseas assets. A diversified portfolio can help spread the risk of possible loss because of below-expectations performance of one or a few of them.

拉尼.亚卡斯（Rani Jarkas）看中国的环保清洁技术

我在最近的一篇博客文章（https://ranijarkas.wordpress.com/2014/06/04/%e5%af%b9%e7%8e%af%e4%bf%9d%e6%b8%85%e6%b4%81%e6%8a%80%e6%9c%af%e7%9a%84%e4%b8%80%e4%ba%9b%e8%a7%81%e8%a7%a3-%e6%8b%89%e5%b0%bc-%e4%ba%9a%e5%8d%a1%e6%96%af%ef%bc%88rani-jarkas%ef%bc%89/）里解释过环保清洁技术的定义以及其重要性。读者可能也阅读过我的另一篇关于环保清洁技术的文章（http://www.briefingwire.com/pr/rani-jarkas-Cleantech-wisdom）。我很欣慰收到了许多读者的支持和正面反馈，因此我想在此继续和大家一起分享和探讨我对环保清洁技术的一些看法。

今天的主题是中国的环保清洁技术。

中国多年大规模的增长对环境和自然资源造成了巨大的伤害也为之付出了沉重的代价。中国政府现在决心要对清洁技术行业采取积极措施，计划通过落实并管理清洁技术，来应对全国的高污染问题，同时平衡其能源需求和经济增长。

早在2010年，中国全年能源消费总量达32.5亿吨标准煤，成为仅次于美国的世界第二大能源消费国。如今，中国在清洁技术的投资已超越美国和欧洲，成为清洁技术产业发展最活跃的国家。美国国家科学基金会科学和工程指标最近的一份报告指出，中国对清洁技术的商业投资已经从2007年的300亿美元上升到2012年的近1,600亿美元。

据跨国咨询公司安永会计事务所（Ernst & Young）发布的可再生能源吸引力指数季度报告，中国2010 年二季度在风能上的投资达100亿美元，占全球投资的一半。中国三季度在清洁新技术行业的投资达135亿美元，而欧洲仅为80 亿美元。中国还在安永发布的可再生能源国家排名榜上名列首位。2010年全球共有38家纯清洁能源公司完成首次公开招股（IPO），其中中国公司就占了20家，筹集了共47亿美元，占全球总清洁技术IPO募集资金的49％。中国经济的蓬勃发展和投资者的热情都会令中国清洁技术的IPO继续刷新纪录。上市公司中大部分都是经营太阳能、风能、能源储存和节能的公司，反映出这些领域是中国清洁技术发展的主力。

据新华网报道，国务院总理温家宝于2013年1月30日主持召开了国务院常务会议，提出加快形成能源消费强度和消费总量双控制的新机制。会议同意国家发展改革委提出的预期目标：到2015年，全国能源消费总量控制在40亿吨标准煤左右，用电量控制在6.15万亿千瓦时左右。

受到国家政策的大力支持，清洁技术将成为中国的下一次工业革命。随着中国能源消费的转型加速，全球各行业的企业、政府和纯清洁技术市场的领导者正在寻求更多的竞争优势。你准备好抓住这些机遇了吗？

Cleantech in China by Rani Jarkas

In my recent blog post (https://ranijarkas.wordpress.com/2014/05/21/cleantechnology-insights), I explained what cleantech is and why it matters to us. You might have seen my another cleantech themed article here: http://www.briefingwire.com/pr/rani-jarkas-Cleantech-wisdom. I am very happy to have received so much positive feedback and support, therefore, I would like to continue the topic and share some of my thoughts and insights that I have gleaned from my work and research in the cleantech industry.

This blog’s topic is Cleantech in China

After years of massive growth that took a heavy toll on the environment and natural resources, China now has an ambitious plan to tackle its energy needs by developing clean energy alternatives.

Back in 2010, China's primary energy consumption rose to 3.25 billion tons of coal equivalent, making it the world's second largest energy consumer after the United States. Today, China has a commanding lead in commercial cleantech investment past the US and Europe. Commercial cleantech investment had more than quadrupled from $30 billion in 2007 to nearly $160 billion in 2012, according to a recent report from the National Science Foundation on science and engineering indicators.

China is a market rife with opportunities for cleantech companies. According to Ernst & Young (EY)’s report, China grabbed the number one spot on its Renewable Energy Attractiveness Index and was the largest recipient of clean energy investment in 2010. China generated 20 of the 38 global pure-play cleantech IPOs completed in 2010. Raising US$4.7 billion, Chinese transactions accounted for 49% of total global cleantech IPO proceeds. Combined with strong investor interest in China's booming economy, these factors have led to a record-breaking spate of Chinese cleantech IPOs that is likely to continue. Solar, wind, energy storage and energy efficiency companies made up the majority of offerings, reflecting the major areas of cleantech development in China.

In January 2013, China Cabinet approved an energy control target. The government aims to keep total energy consumption below 4 billion tons of standard coal equivalent by 2015, with electricity consumption below 6.15 trillion kilowatt-hours, according to Xinhua News Agency after a State Council meeting presided over by Premier Wen Jiabao.

Cleantech in China will continue to be the next industrial revolution. As the transformation accelerates, global corporations across industries, governments and pure-play cleantech market leaders are moving quickly to gain competitive advantage. Are you ready to seize transformational opportunities in China?

拉尼.亚卡斯对人民币的见解

[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="550"] ranijarkas.wordpress.com-Launch ceremony of RMB sovereign bonds in HK[/caption]

人民币是中华人民共和国的法定货币，其字面含义为“人民的货币”。 人民币简称为CNY（China Yuan），常用的缩写是RMB（Renminbi），离岸交易代码为CNH。不管人民币的代码是什么，有一件事是肯定的：人民币一定会存在，而且它正在改变整个世界开展业务的方式。

2005年，人民币汇率告别长达10年的紧盯美元的固定汇率体制，而进入了有管理的浮动汇率制度，并确定了人民币汇率的市场化取向。人民币放弃了与美元挂钩，引入参考一篮子货币。2011年3月，原国务院总理温家宝表示，中国将继续逐步增加汇率的灵活性。2011年8月，中华人民共和国财政部在香港举行人民币国债在港发行仪式，国务院副总理李克强出席仪式并启动发行。2013年9月，国务院总理李克强在出席夏季达沃斯论坛上提到关于金融改革的细节，誓言全面改革目前由国家主导的金融机构、放开利率管制，并最终让人民币实现完全可兑换。他表示，他领导的政府意在“积极稳妥地推进利率、汇率的市场化”，并“逐步推进人民币资本项下可兑换”。

拉尼.亚卡斯（Rani Jarkas）是一名世界知名的企业家和银行家，他在一次主题演讲中表示，“我相信中国将扩大人民币的使用范围，人民币在国与国之间的贸易来往中已越来越受青睐，越来越多的国家和地区已加入到争夺人民币离岸中心的行列之中。随着时间的推移，人民币将逐渐代替美元成为贸易结算货币。随着中国经济的持续增长，我坚信人民币将在未来五年之内成为极具竞争力的储备货币。”

BRIEFINGWIRE: Rani Jarkas’ Confidence in Chinese RMB Yuan

BRIEFINGWIRE: Rani Jarkas’ Confidence in Chinese RMB Yuan

Rani Jarkas’ Confidence in Chinese RMB Yuan

[caption id="attachment_36" align="aligncenter" width="300"] Rani Jarkas Confidence in Chinese RMB/Yuan Investments (http://ranijarkas.wordpress.com)[/caption]
When many experts on Wall Street saw a free-floating Yuan as a distant prospect, Rani Jarkas, a world-renowned entrepreneur and a banking expert, has shown his early confidence in RMB. Seeing China’s economy has been developing rapidly and the level of its openness to the outside world keeps increasing, Rani believes RMB will become more and more used overseas and will become fully convertible in international markets in the future.

When the China Central Government stated its support for Hong Kong's development as an offshore Renminbi business centre in 2010, Rani saw the great potential and seized the opportunity immediately to establish a platform in Hong Kong. Taking a broader and more forward-looking view, he launched an offering of renminbi (RMB) – denominated investment products through a global boutique investment firm in the same year.

Through Rani’s relationships and global network of his partners, he has expanded the offering to include a wide variety of RMB-denominated products, including ‘dim sum bonds’, funds, IPOs and currency exposure in order to meet his clients’ needs.

Rani Jarkas said, “Our goal in expanding our offering to include RMB-denominated investment products is to ensure that our clients are well-diversified and positioned for the inevitable global rebalancing – the theme of the century.” He added that, “As the RMB market grows, we will continue to seek out unique investment opportunities for our clients.”