Rani Jarkas: China is likely to be Indonesia’s top investor

According to the latest investment realization data from Indonesia’s Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), Singapore is the largest contributor with US$5.9 billion in investment, a 20 percent share of total foreign investment in 2015.

However, China, in ninth position with $0.63 billion believed to be the biggest foreign investors in Indonesia as Chinese investors often invest in other countries through proxy companies or subsidiaries that are based in other countries such as Singapore or Hong Kong which is unable to monitor investments.

Early in 2010, China has already become Indonesia’s largest trade partner through China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), and committed to assist Indonesia in infrastructural development. Chinese President Xi Jinping has ensured his support for developing Indonesia’s infrastructure by pledging to sponsor projects through the Maritime Silk Road Fund and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).

In April 2015, Xi reassured that China will encourage more companies to invest in infrastructure construction and operations in Indonesia, on a meeting with Indonesian President Joko Widodo in Jakarta during the two-day Asian-African leaders' meeting.

As of October 2015, China has offered up to US$100 billion in total investments in various projects between the Indonesian government and Chinese investors. The mega project in which China is providing investment is the high-speed railway between Jakarta and Bandung, which will be a big contribution in supply chain.

Rani Jarkas, Chairman of Cedrus Investments, an investment pioneer with years of financial experience in Asia, said “Strong Sino-Indonesian relations will benefit Indonesian’s economy. I believe that in the long term, Indonesia will see more investments coming from China.”

人民币将是未来少数具备超越其他全球货币能力的货币之一

自从货币基金组织决定即美元、欧元、英镑和日元之后，自2016年起将人民币纳入特别提款权（SDR）篮子，人民币的国际化迈出了坚实的一步，这将使得未来对人民币的需求大大提升，极大地增强人民币的地位。

美国国内利率正常化的大背景下美元却仍可能走强，而人民币很可能保持稳定，而非对美元贬值。渣打银行驻香港高级利率策略师刘洁表示，人民币将会是仍能跑赢美元的少数货币之一。

中国国际金融有限公司首席经济学家梁红称，人民币在今年至少会与美元一样表现强劲，并很有可能超过美元。

就一些分析机构认为人民币在2016年会持续下行，李克强总理上周五评论道中国能够维持人民币汇率基本稳定在一个合理和平衡的水平，不存在持续贬值的基础。中国副主席李源潮在刚刚举办的瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛年会上补充道：“中国政府没有意愿也没有政策来使货币贬值，因为货币市场的波动是市场力量的结果”。

王雷（Rani Jarkas）在亚洲有多年的金融经验。他表示，“人民币的下行压力将会缓解。我相信人民币仍是在未来能超越美元的少数货币之一。”

RMB will be one of the few currencies that can still outperform global currencies in the future

Since IMF decided to include the yuan in the basket of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) from 2016, joining the dollar, the euro, the pound and the yen, the internationalization process of renminbi has made a solid step forward and it will prompt China’s currency to strengthen dramatically as demand for the renminbi rises in the future.

The renminbi will likely be "stable" rather than depreciate against the greenback, while the US dollar is due to become stronger against the backdrop of rates normalization in the US. RMB might prove to be one of the few currencies that can still beat the US dollar, said Becky Liu, Senior Rates Strategist at Standard Chartered Bank (HK) Ltd.

Liang Hong, Chief Economist at China International Capital Corporation, added that "RMB will be at least as strong as the US dollar this year, if not stronger."

While some forecast that RMB will retain a depreciating bias in 2016, Premier Li Keqiang commented last Friday that China can maintain yuan exchange rate “basically stable at a reasonable and balanced standard,” adding there’s “no basis for a continued depreciation.” The Chinese government has no intention and no policy to devalue its currency, as the fluctuations in the currency market are a result of market forces, said Li Yuanchao, China’s Vice president, on the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

Rani Jarkas, Chairman of Cedrus Investments, an investment pioneer with years of financial experience in Asia, said, “Downward pressure on RMB is expected to ease. I expect RMB will remain one of the few currencies that can outperform the US dollar in the years to come.”

对于中国市场的投资需要时间、耐心和多样性

尽管市场波动剧烈，但中国的基本经济形式仍然相对乐观。作为一名关注中国权益市场多年的投资专家，我能给出的建议是投资需要时间、耐心和多样化。

因为A股加入摩根士丹利资本国际（MSCI）新兴市场指数，更多的长期资金即将涌入。然而，中国股市刚刚经历了动荡的一年，也引起了全球股市的连锁反应。

中国已经发出了一个明确信息信号，经济增长有可能会下滑。但是，在总体经济大环境的影响下依然能呈现出非常强劲和整张良好的势头。如果你再深入观察，可以发现制造业之中存在着过剩的产能。但向更强大发展更优质的服务型经济的转变，大部分来源于私人企业和业务的长期可持续发展。

赛德思投资董事长王雷（Rani Jarkas）先生在亚洲拥有多年金融经验，他表示：“关于市场估值，每当投资者看到这种大行情波动，拥有多样化的投资组合的客户，包括固定收益、股票、大宗商品和其他另类投资类别，通常能跑赢大盘。这样的时刻提醒着他们多元化投资的重要性。”

Investing require time, patience and diversification with the Chinese market

Despite market volatility, the country's underlying economy is relatively sanguine. Investing requires time, patience and diversification is the advice that a financial veteran offers to investors whose eyes are fixed on China's equity market.

Because of the A-share's inclusion into the MSCI Emerging Market index, more capital with long-term commitment will enter the market. However China's stock market has gone through a volatile year, which also had a ripple effect on the global market.

China has sent a clear message that its growth will decline, but in aggregate the economy is still very strong and with high quality of growth compared to other countries. If you look deeper, there's some overcapacity in the manufacturing sector. But what has taken place is a transition towards much stronger service economy with better quality of growth and much of that being built by private enterprises and long-term sustainable business development.

Rani Jarkas, Chairman of Cedrus Investments, an investment pioneer with years of financial experience in Asia,  added, “In terms of market valuation and whenever investors see this kind of volatility, clients with diversified portfolios that include fixed income, equities, commodities and other alternative asset classes will outperform the market. Moments like this remind clients of the importance of diversification.”

中国精准医疗的未来

自美国总统奥巴马2015年初宣布启动新的医疗研究努力——精准医疗计划以来，中国也在指定自己更大的精准医疗项目。中国一些领先研究机构包括清华大学、复旦大学以及中国医学科学院都纷纷建立精准医学中心。例如四川大学华西医院计划完成一百万个人体基因序列，与整个美国的计划目标相同。

中国政府有望在今年3月份批准下一个五年计划，尽管目前还不清楚将会投入多少资金，但几乎可以肯定的是， 会比美国2.15亿美元的计划规模更大，投入的资金更多。

今年1月9日，中国科学院宣布启动“中国人群精准医学研究计划”，将在4年内完成4,000名志愿者的基因信息采集。

当前中国一些基因测序公司已相继竞争提供测序服务，中国多年以来为超高的基因测序能力而引以为傲。2010年，总部位于深圳的基因研究院华大基因估测其测序能力超过了整个美国。但这也要感谢其从加州圣迭戈的Illumina公司购买的设备，这些设备在当时代表着最为尖端的技术。但中国的其他基因公司随后也从Illumina公司购买了升级后的产品，包括来自上海的药明康德和云健康基因，以及来自北京的诺禾致源。

美国国立卫生研究院院长弗朗西斯•柯林斯于2015年大连夏季达沃斯论坛上表示，他希望在未来看到中美双方在精准医疗上更多的合作。

我认为，中国在基因序列和识别突变基因这些与个性化治疗相关的方面发展会比美国迅速，这是因为中国每种疾病都有庞大的病患数量，使得研究拥有足够的样本，加之中国政府对成功的决心。然而，中国能否将这些发现都应用到患者的个性化治疗上面，仍然有待观察。

The future of precision medicine in China

Since US President Barack Obama unveiled the new medical research effort called Precision Medicine Initiative at early 2015, China has been finalizing plans for its own, much larger project. China’s leading institutes — including Tsinghua University, Fudan University and the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences — are scrambling to set up precision-medicine centres. Sichuan University’s West China Hospital, for instance, plans to sequence 1 million human genomes itself — the same goal as the entire US initiative.

The Chinese government is expected to officially announce the initiative after it approves its next five-year plan in March. Just how much the effort will cost is unclear — but it will almost certainly be larger and more expensive than the US$215-million US initiative.

On January 9^th, the Chinese Academy of Science (CAS) announced its precision medicine research plan targeting Chinese people, which will spend four years colleting genetic information of 4,000 volunteers.

Genome-sequencing companies are already competing to provide services to deal with the anticipated demand. For several years, China has boasted high genome-sequencing capacity. In 2010, the genomics institute BGI in Shenzhen was estimated to host more sequencing capacity than the entire United States. This was thanks to its equipment, purchased from Illumina of San Diego, California, which at the time represented state-of-the-art technology. But Illumina has since sold upgraded machines to at least three other genomics firms — WuXi PharmaTech and Cloud Health, both in Shanghai, and the Beijing-based firm Novogene.

Francis S. Collins, the director of the US National Institutes for Health, spoke at Summer Davos in Dalian in September 2015 that someday he would like to see the United States and China cooperate more on precision medicine.

As far as I’m concerned, China will be faster than the United States at sequencing genomes and identifying mutations that are relevant to personalized medicine because China’s larger populations of patients for each disease will make it easier to find sufficient numbers to study, combined with the Chinese government’s determination to succeed. Still, it remains to be seen whether China has the resources to apply these insights to the individualized care of patients due to the dearth of doctors.